[What if cars were like mobile phones? There are some eerie similarities between the approaches of car makers in 2014, and operators and handset makers in 2008. Will car makers be disrupted in the same way that the mobile industry was? Senior analyst Stijn Schuermans shares his feeling of deja-vu.]
“Cars are the biggest and oldest mobile devices. We are the face of mobility. We’ve been around for over a century. But we welcome the competition from newcomers like Apple and Samsung.” — paraphrasing John Ellis (Head of Ford’s developer program) at CES 2013
Let’s entertain that thought for a moment. What if cars were like mobile phones?
At the moment, they would be like the feature phones of yesteryear. Today’s mainstream cars have 4 “apps”: driving from A to B (obviously), climate control, music (AM/FM radio, CDs, and more recently internet radio) and GPS navigation.Feature phones in 2008Cars in 2014TelephonyDrivingTextingClimate controlContactsGPS navigationCameraMusic
In fact, this is not the only parallel we can draw between these two industries, as car makers are betting heavily on the concept of apps in the car. There are some eerie similarities between the approaches of car makers in 2014, and operators and handset makers in 2008. We’ve listed some in our latest report: “Apps for connected cars? Your mileage may vary”.
QNX is the new Symbian. Genivi is the new LiMo. Windows Embedded Automotive is the new Windows Mobile. Just like mobile operators in 2008, car makers are very hopeful that apps under their control will bring significant new revenue streams from value-added services. Developers are named “partners”, but it is clear that car makers (as were telcos) are mostly see them as suppliers of content and treat them accordingly. (For the full list, take a look inside the report.)
How mobile was disrupted
Can we use this insight – car apps are just like mobile, shifted in time – to predict the future of the car app market? In our report “The Telco Innovation Toolbox” (2 years old, but still highly relevant), we showed what has happened in the mobile industry.
From the 4 “most wanted” apps of the feature phone days (according to market research acquired at great expense, no doubt), we went to smartphones with now over a million apps, encompassing every imaginable user need. Service distribution and industry power shifted from telcos to mobile platforms: Android and iOS.
Fundamentally, the basis of competition in the mobile industry shifted from reliability and scale (which network has the most bars) to choice and flexibility (which handset has the most apps). This wealth of applications unlocked a user demand that far exceeds that of a selection of “best” or “most important” features in a product designed by a single organisation.
The same shift in cars?
Can the same shift happen for car apps? Will the basis of competition for car makers change from reliability and scale in the production of cars and infotainment systems, to choice and flexibility of in-vehicle and out-of-vehicle services that will unlock new user demand? We believe it can, and it will.
Already car makers like Ford and General Motors and over-the-dashboard players like Mirrorlink, Apple, Google and most recently, Microsoft are working towards app platforms for cars. The introduction of Apple’s CarPlay, Google’s Open Automotive Alliance and Microsoft’s Windows in the Car seems to herald a tipping point in the industry. Here are players that have a deep expertise in fostering vibrant ecosystems, in building developer communities and in enabling developers to add value. There is now a realistic and acute possibility that these new entrants will sweep away the existing car app platforms with a dominant, over-the-top solution, just as they did in the smartphone world.
In short, car makers should take the following statement as a heads-up:
I want to buy Carplay. I don't really care that much about the vehicle around it. — Dave Pell (@davepell) March 16, 2014
Now you know what’s at stake. Find out how the car industry is changing and what to do about it. Our full report on automotive developer programs is available as a free download.